There is a great deal of discussion surrounding raids after z-day.
Certainly, there will be unsavory survivors who want nothing but to rape and pillage the world, right?
We're bound to face gun toting, human-hunting savages in spiked leather and chains, right?
I don't know about that. Certainly in the first stages of a class 4 outbreak, these violent nomads would wreak havoc upon the survivors, but I doubt that they will have the strength to fight it out for the true duration of the zompocalypse. In the beginning, the chaos and destruction will reward those who take by force. They will find that they have access to the supplies and comforts of the less powerful, and they won't need to do the work to obtain these supplies. But what happens when the weaker groups start being eliminated by these barbarians? How will they continue to obtain supplies if they keep attacking the people with the skills and desire to thrive? Eventually, they'll need to travel further and further to get to supply centers, and the more time spent out in the open without a safe place to sleep, the more likely you are to find death.
If that is the case, the raiders will certainly make life miserable, but those with the courage, luck, and instinct to hold out will be rewarded by dwindling numbers of instances of violence. Gradually, those with the skills to coexist will be left standing.
There are other factors at work here as well. To continue a campaign of dangerous missions, aggression, and overwhelming force, you need several things: numerical superiority, firepower, morale, and long term survival. I will attempt to break down each of these elements and demonstrate why raiders will find themselves lacking.
Numerical Superiority: As a raider, your life's purpose is to take by force what you want. That means that the guy in charge is whoever can take charge by force and keep it. Every decision that gets challenged costs lives. The only way to maintain superior numbers while on the move and continually fighting is submission. Without total compliance, the group's only other way to maintain numbers is through constant recruitment. The amount of training and indoctrinization needed to keep a well armed military group under control is nearly impossible on the move.
Firepower: While having weapons and ammunition is crucial to any survival effort, it is doubly so for the raider. Survivors building for the future need munitions only to defend themselves from hostiles, and they can afford to be highly conservative. To be on the offensive, you must be willing to attack more than the defenders, otherwise you cannot penetrate them. This is the first toll on your weapons. Being on the move is a second toll on weapons, as they take up space and weight, and so you must have a limited supply, or you will find yourself out of gasoline or space for fighters very quickly. The type of mobile force that can move from outpost to outpost taking what they need must be lightly armed to maintain mobility, which makes every assault a delicate balancing act. Not enough firepower and the mission is a failure, too much and you risk being unable to completely restock after a successful mission. A third toll on the weapons, which is related to the second, is the lack of familiarity. It takes a greater deal of firepower to contain an area if that area is not clearly defined, especially if that area moves. Imagine how much effort it would take to keep a small settlement clear of zeds. Now imagine how much effort it would take to maintain an entire stretch of highway from one patch of civilization to another. Good luck.
Morale: As stated above, total compliance is required for raiding parties, because of the elevated risks associated with constant fighting. Your team must be a well-oiled machine, and you must be the absolute master of its gears. Gears designed for roving destruction and intimidation are not ideally suited for taking commands without resistance. As leader of a raiding group, you must ensure that your soldiers have not only the strength and the training to fight, but also the motivation. You cannot be seen to hold back any luxury for yourself, or you risk jealous stares and attempts at subversion. Without these luxuries, however, your own morale will suffer, and your team will see signs of weakness on those days that fighting just seems to be too much effort for you. Invariably, you will need to clean out the machine you've built and remove the gears that don't fit properly. When those gears have sharp edges, extreme caution must be taken, because they certainly won't like the idea of being left to fend for themselves if their training is focused on group effort. Every cleaning process will cost you numerically, and the remaining gears will be forced to confront a possible future for themselves if they should find themselves on the unwanted end of the machine. New recruits who are brought in to replace those who didn't fall into line are going to have the same morale issues. You must thrown the new men a bone to motivate them, but the bone must be small enough that the hardened veterans don't feel slighted. This balancing act must be maintained on a long term basis if your unit is to carry on beyond the peaceful survivors.
Long Term Survival: Face it, if your entire survival strategy is to take what you need from others, you must admit that you rely on your victims to remain well-equipped. You must be very conservative in what you take, and you must keep your victims safe from other scavengers, but if they were to observe this aspect of your relationship, their degree of intimidation would be affected. If you strip them bare, you can never return to this ground, as they will undoubtedly be destroyed by the zeds before they can replenish. This compounds the strain you already have on supplies. You must attack frequently, you must have many targets to pick from, and you must survive each ordeal.
My conclusion is that any raiding team that survives an entire year after z-day will of necessity be the most organized, well-maintained unit you will ever see after the apocalypse. They will appear to be ruthless and destructive, but if they make it this far, as a peaceful survivor, you can probably assume that they respect their tenuous place in the world, and you will gain the upper hand in dealings with them. No raiding team can afford to trade firepower for an extended period of time, so once the less effective raiders begin dying off, you will know it is time for battle.
In the end, coexistence is superior. It requires greater hardship and less luxury, and at times it will be unfair and the urge to join the raiders will come to you. Keep solid. Cultivate the future. Your patience and strength will earn you a new civilization, and it will be one of peace among your people and war with the zeds.
Comments are welcome.
When z-day comes, you can assume my base will be open to survivors.
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